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Master merching guide

Discussion in 'Guides and Tips' started by Dance4Master, Apr 10, 2017.

  1. #1 Dance4Master, Apr 10, 2017
    Last edited: May 9, 2017
    Hey guys,


    This post is for those who do not know how to flip yet but want to find out, it will be a long read! I won’t go into different details here on the strategies I use when flipping. Another great guide where I will loosely take the setup of this guide from is the one from Wilson, even so I’ll be simply giving my strategies and my personal look into flipping, for Wilson’s guide look here: http://lets-flip.com/threads/wilsons-merchanting-guide.898/


    For those who want the absolute basics: buy an item instant – sell it instant – check GE history – reverse the buy and sell price, possibly + / - 1 gp.


    To start flipping you don’t need a lot of cash nor a lot of time. Obviously more cash helps, however it’s optional. Whilst flipping you’ll quickly notice that there’s several ways of flipping, mainly because of the time involved. We will start out with several types of active flipping.


    Things to know:

    · Active flippers usually check the price.

    · Active flips are faster but lower margin.

    · Item to do should be relatively stable.


    Cheap active flips (usually high volume):

    Cheap active flips are some of the most common flips in Runescape. The basic idea with these are that they’re fast, low profit and used by a lot of players. Think about Zulrah’s scales, runes, arrows, cannonballs etc. To start flipping actively one usually buys the item instant and then sells it instant example:


    · Chaos runes, bought: 99 – sold: 101. Margin 2

    · Rune full helm, bought: 21 765 – sold: 22 251. Margin 586



    (picture will come later)


    Now obviously that doesn’t look like much, however this will quickly add up when you take the whole limit. If you can’t afford the limit it is advised to still flip at least 4 items (if all ge slots are open) and buy / sell at the same time.


    Why cheap active flips?

    · Fast

    · Low risk

    · Many options

    · Little required


    Downsides:

    · Little profit

    · Much competition



    Mid priced active flips (low volume, possible decent margins):

    These kind of flips are usually not great and for my feeling rather awkward. Even so a lot of money can be made by them. Items in this category include most things between 50k and 5m, besides that they are an uncommon drop from monsters that are killed a lot (dagannoth king rings, occults, sara swords, whips, fury’s etc. etc.). I will also include dragonstone jewellery even though these have a high buying limit the dragonstones are still rather scarce.


    When flipping these mid priced items you are still going to check the margin, just don’t use the +5% and -5% button which could cost you a lot of money. The reason for this is that you can hit a weird spike resulting in a loss and an inability to flip the item. For instance the berserker ring:


    · GE price: 2,652,920

    · OSB price: 2,670,651

    · Bought (with +5%): 2,699,997

    · Sold (with -5%): 2,551,003

    · Margin: 148 994


    Now obviously you’ll start getting excited, almost 150k margin, Great! But this will usually not work this way. The main characteristic here being that the sell price was under the GE avg. and the buy price above the GE avg. When this happens a lot of players will look to the OSB. Price and put it in a bit higher than that, besides that the people who do flip will quickly undercut the initial 150k margin. Result: you lose 150k without even knowing the margin.


    So how do you do it right? Easy.



    · GE price: 2,652,920

    · OSB price: 2,670,651

    · Bought (with +5%): 2,699,997

    · Sold (at GE price): NO


    Wait what, that’s a shame, no margin’s now what do you do? 2 options.

    1. You sell the first you bought and then buy it for the GE price and sell it for the orginal buying price.

    2. You take the risk and still sell it for less (lower it 10k every step until it sells or you are happy with the margin you’ll get)


    Why mid priced active flips?


    · Fast

    · Decent – good margins

    · Low risk

    · Many spikes (this can also be a downside, will come back to it later)


    Downsides:

    · Many spikes

    · Much competition

    · Possibly hard to find items.




    High priced active flips:

    High priced active flips are dangerous, volatile and very profitable if done well. I Categorize high priced items are most things above 5m, think about a pharaoh’s sceptre, bandos chestplates, armadyl crossbow and even arcane spirit shields etc. (it’s not adviced to flip items that aren’t traded much like raid items / elys)

    When doing High priced active flips it is usually a good idea to check the OSB. History to see if the item is dropping, this will give you an estimate about the safety of the items and what price it should be at.

    The problems with these items are the fact that they can change in price very quickly, are rather unstable and in time have weird drops. I’ll try to explain my view on these items with several examples.


    Whilst flipping high priced items you should take note of several things. The first is to check the OSbuddy price and the GE price. How much do those differ? Although the OSbuddy price is a good indicator for how much you can sell it now, the GE price (except with very weird spikes) represents the average price the item was sold at the day before. If an item has a weird gap (200k+) between these prices it’s possible there was just a spike which will be corrected soon. On the other hand you could just take the risk and try to flip the item as margins will probably be great. Besides that a spike downwards you can easily pick some up and sell them a bit later.


    Example 1: Bandos chestplate, downwards spike

    · GE price: 13,289,920

    · OSB price: 12,870,364

    · Bought (@ ge price): 13 050 000

    · Max. margin required: 250k

    · Sold (-250k buy price): 12 921 000

    · Margin: 129 000


    Now as you can see in the example the OSB price says less than the price actually sold at, this means the item had a spike but that has since been adjusted. Usually this means the item is safe to flip, mainly because you will be able to sell it for the price you’re buying it at, even if the item does drop a bit below the OSB price it is now, simply because the high price of the item will still represent the price people will buy it instantly for (if they buy it instant) and that price will usually not go down 100-200k when OSB price is lower than GE price.


    Example 2: Bandos chestplate, upwards spike

    · GE price: 13,689,920

    · OSB price: 14,870,364

    · Bought (@ ge price): 15 000 000

    · Max. margin required: 250k

    · Sold (-250k buy price): no!

    · Margin: no!

    If this happens you will most likely have a problem. The best thing to do is sell the one you have for the price you bought it on and move on. Unless you want to take a risk. In that case still sell the fuck for the same price but afterwards try buying the item back for something like 500k less (in this case 14 500k). However don’t do the limit (8 on gwd items/spirit shields, 4 on raids) but do them one by one. This way you won’t be stuck with 7 (8 – the 1 you bought) bandos chetplates when they drop again. Obviously this example of 250k difference is a bit much on bandos chestsplates, but it happens.


    Example 3: Bandos chestplate, stable

    · GE price: 13,289,920

    · OSB price: 13,340,364

    · Bought (@ ge price): 13 350 000

    · Max. margin required: 250k

    · Sold (-250k buy price): 13 251 000

    · Margin: 99 000

    Now this margin is very reasonable to look for on high priced flips (well, those below 50m) and all should be good here. The one thing to notice is the fact that the buying price is higher than the OSB. Price and the selling price lower than the GE price. You will notice that when this happens you might not be able to sell one for a while. Oftentimes when this happens it is because either more people are flipping the item ore people have simply dumped then in for the GE price. If this happens and they don’t sell for like, 30 minutes, simply lower them bit by bit until they do. Worst case scenario is that you sell them 2 gp under the GE price.


    Example 4: Bandos Chestplate, weird ass spike


    · GE price: 13,289,920

    · OSB price: 13,100,364

    · Bought (@ ge price): 12 870 000

    · Max. margin required: 250k

    · Sold (-250k buy price): 12 631 000

    · Margin: 239 000


    Now this is one fucked up spike and should be taken advantage of. Although they are probably dropping, a lot of people will either put their offer in for the OSB price or the GE price. This means that it will probably go back up to at least 13m. Of course you will never know for sure if an item will go up or down, however your instincts on this will eventually get better when you flip these kind of items more.

    Why high priced items:
    - fast
    - high margins
    - little work
    - little competition

    Why not:
    - a lot of undercutting
    - possibility for high losses
    - freezes a lot of cash
     
    franky007 likes this.
  2. #2 Dance4Master, Apr 10, 2017
    Last edited: May 9, 2017
    (pictures coming soon)

    Most people in Runescape don’t understand how the Grand Exchange works. Because of this there’s a lot of different advice out there which clashes on the details. Should you undercut yes or no? When do I raise the price and why would you do this. Because of this I will try to explain in detail everything I know about the GE and which strategies you can implement to make the most profit. Most things in here are literally common sense, this post is simply to show my way of looking at it and give others ideas.


    · How does GE decide who buys an item

    When you are flipping low-end active items you will usually notice that these can take a while to flip. This is mainly because you don’t undercut your opponents who are flipping for the same price. When this happens the GE will look at the first offer that was put in. When someone sells the item this is the person who will receive the offer, no matter how big the quantity of the sell is.

    For instance:

    5 people are buying 30k zulrah’s scales @ 120 each.

    When someone now sells 1 single zulrah scale, person 1 will get 1 single zulrah scale. If after that somebody sells 10k zulrah’s scales person 2 will receive 10k zulrah’s scales.

    If after that somebody sells 40k scales, person 3 will receive 30k (limit) and person 4 will get 10k.


    To sell an item more quickly you can obviously overcut (buy for 121 instead of 120 in this case) this is because the highest offer will get the item first. This will however decrease your profit and is thus not adviced on low cost flips.


    · How does the GE decide who sells an item

    Well just like before the first person who put the lowest offer in will get to sell first. As with selling it doesn’t matter how big the buying offer is, the GE will simply rotate between the players.

    So 2 from the 5 players might sell 1 scale because people where checking the price whilst the other 3 (who put their offer in later) will sell all 30k at once.


    · How can I get around this?

    The only real thing you can do is put offers into 2 slots. The GE will separate these offers and will give both 1 rotation, this may however cause you to lose a 10k rotation (when u put in 2x 5k) if the rotations are not lined up. Besides that there’s no way around this except undercutting. Obviously on zulrah’s scales which have a 2 GP margin this will give you 50% less profit, on higher items it is usually worth it though, even if it’s just 1 GP you offer will differ from your opponent giving you the first buy or sell.

    · When do I undercut?

    (Undercutting is raising the price a couple gp / k to buy or sell the item first) This is where most people go wrong. A lot of people think undercutting more, or undercutting always is the best thing to do, that however is not the case in a lot of situation. I’ll give some examples and situation that might occur.


    Inactive flipper:

    A lot of people flip inactive, simply get to the GE check some items and then go back to zulrah, slayer etc. When doing this it will usually be a good idea to take the same price as your opponent for a simple reason. Ignorance! (this is obviously only an issue when you check the margin on these high end items.)

    Usually when people don’t buy an item for a long time they raise the price of their flip a couple k or check the price again. When this happens you will lose your margin and you will probably have to raise the price of selling and lower the price of buying if you don’t want to check the item. If however you put it on exactly the same price your opponent will still receive the item you’re flipping, although slower, thus giving him a reason not to raise the price and fuck up your margins.

    This is even more true because you don’t want to go back to the GE every 10 minute to change the prices.


    Active flipper:

    When flipping active (whilst @ the GE) you should usually undercut high-end items and items with a high (unusual) margin. For instance:

    Bandos chestplate:

    · Bought: 13 050 000

    · Sold (-250k buy price): 12 921 000

    · Margin: 129 000

    · Buy offer: 13 051 003

    · Sell offer: 12 919 997

    Here you undercut simply because it’s easy, you will get the item faster and seeing as you’re at the GE anyway you can instantly sell it again, making more profit / hour and thus being more effective.


    Grapes:

    · Bought: 170

    · Sold: 162

    · GE price: 180

    · OSB price: 172

    · Buy offer: 163

    · Sell offer: 169 (or higher if you don’t mind waiting)

    Now this one is a bit weirder because you are actually still selling under the OSB price. Most likely here you will put the offer in and it’ll seem that you get undercut quickly. This is simply because the usual price / actual value of grapes is higher than it is going for now. Thus a lot of people will put the offer in for 172 (osb price) to get them more quickly, besides that people who stumble upon the item may decide to buy a couple in.


    Patterns

    Once you get used to the GE and have flipped a lot you will start to notice patterns. Although I could go in depth on the different patterns and how they work you guys are really not worth that much time to me. Thus I’ll simply go over the easy ones.

    High-end gear in days: high-end gear usually low during the week with the lowest point usually being at Thursday. The reason for this, very simply, being that more people play in the weekend. This also means that the price of high-end gear will normally be most expensive at Sunday. In my experience prices of gear drop late Sunday night up until Monday evening when it rises a bit again before dropping more on Tuesday. Up until Thursday items will drop with them slowly crawling back up on Thursday evening + Friday. The difference between Sunday and Wednesday on very high-end items will usually be around 6-10% in my experience.

    Conclusion: sell shit on Sunday, buy it back on Wednesday – Thursday, or Monday if u wanna use the gear.

    High-end gear in hours: high-end gear obviously isn’t only falling and rising every several days. Usually it is also cheap to buy these items in the ‘low’ hours (when hardly any fuck is online), and expensive to buy in the high hours. The difference will usually be around 2-4%.

    Conclusion: buy shit early, sell it late.


    Notes: this is all from personal experience, don’t come whining to me if it doesn’t work out. All risks are you own.


    Up next: the different sorts of items and what my experiences are with them (ranging from holy sandals – pharaoh’s scepters and from bronze scimies – twisted bows). This will be a long fucker and I’m slow as shit so you guys will have to wait a bit for this one.
     
  3. Looks good so far, maybe add some pictures and you'll be golden.
     
  4. Very nice guide! Explained very nice but as The Kill said: add some pictures: all that plain text will scare people :)

    Keep it up!
     
  5. yeah i know, atm a bit to busy. writing all the guides on my way back from work in the train haha, i will be adding more and pictures soon. Also i'll make this guide complete over the next few weeks / months, depending on hm time i got. explaining different strategies, points of views and angles on how to flip. most will be rather logical when u start thinking about it, most people just don't think about it:p
     
  6. Cool guide, sir
     
  7. Still working on the pictures guys... k i'm not, but i'll be getting 'm soon enough. atm g2 focus on some other shit, hope u guys still like the 'guide', if u want any parts in here that aren't in here yet just post here and i'll do my best to explain it as far as my knowledge goes :)
     

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